doc. Ing. Jana Kotlebová, PhD.

Participation in conducting (leading) the most important research projects or art projects over the last six years

APVV-20-0359 Covid-19 pandemic, macroeconomic development, food security and household wellbeing, 1.7.2021 - 30.6.2024 member of research team. In this project we focus on the effects of the crisis on welfare of consumers, food security, commodity and food prices, as well as on functioning of food supply chains. The project will study mainly the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and Slovakia in particular. Recent Household Finance and Consumption Survey microdatawill be used to quantify marginal propensity to save and to consume, households’ risk of falling into poverty and insolvency using state of the art microeconometric techniques. Demand models will be applied to Household budget survey data to estimate recent demand elasticities, which will be then employed to simulate the effect of food price volatility and other economic uncertainty (such as changes in employment of household member and shocks to household income) on household welfare changes. We will also use the estimated demand model parameters and predicted budget shares to simulate the effects of the pandemic on diet quality, which is one of the measures of food security and building on the household model of health production we will link the households’ diets to the health outcomes. Recent crisis has a strong effect on volatility of commodity and food prices which we will study using complex time-series econometric methods. The project will also investigate the effects of crisis on the efficiency of functioning of food supply chains and specifically on horizontal and vertical price transmission.

SAV/APVV-15-0666 Capital Flight and its Impact on the Slovak Economy - 1.7.2016-31.12.2019 member of research team In the context of liberalization of global capital mobility, sophisticated world financial systems and expansion of information and communication technology, capital flight appears to be of the main bottlenecks not only for developing but also for advanced economies as well. This trend has been worsening during and in the aftermath of the global economic and financial crisis. While estimates on the size of capital exist for some developing countries (Global Financial Integrity, World Bank), there is almost none when it comes to advanced countries including Slovakia. The proposed project contributes in advancing the underlined topic to a new level in three ways. The first contribution of the project is in modifying existing methods to estimate the size of capital flight from Slovakia and EU member states. The major added value of the project is the introduction of new models that have not been used so far to estimate the size of capital flight (input-output model, flow of funds analysis, and network analysis). Furthermore, the project identifies and quantifies the macroeconomic factors (determinants) that provoke capital flight (using logit model, cointegration, Granger causality, VAR and VECM models). Thirdly, the project estimates the macroeconomic consequences of capital flight for the Slovak economy and other EU member states using growth models. Lastly, the project offers a macroeconomic framework of understanding the phenomena of capital flight in the era of relatively free global capital mobility across countries and summarizes some policy recommendations to curb if not eliminate the size of capital flightfrom Slovakia and EU member states.

VEGA 1/0221/21 Interest rates in the environment with central bank digital currency, 2021-2023, main investigator. So far, the concept of central bank digital currency (CBDC) has not been finalized or implemented. The sheer volume of different CBDC designs requires a more detailed analysis of their effects on the monetary policy (MP) transmission, as well as on price and finan. stability. CBDC implementation would significantly alter the functioning of the finan. system. It is therefore crucial to investigate the changes to the interest rates – as the inter. rate transmission channel of MP would be extended by the CBDC’s interest rates, which could be used to regulate the demand for CBDC, but which could potentially also play an important role in helping to attain the MP objectives. As price of money, inter. rates affect the functioning of each segment of the finan. market. The project focuses on the study of potential benefits and dangers for bank. sector, finan. markets and real economy, which could be associated with the modification of the inter. rate transmission process of MP in the EA19 due to CBDC implementation.

VEGA 1/0613/18 Deepening of economic inequalities as a consequence of distributional effects of unconventional monetary policy - 2018-2020 - main investigator. Global economy suffers from deepening of economic inequalities among individual institutional entities within particular economic sectors. It is evident, that monetary policy contributes to this phenomenon. Current state of research is only partial issues. It is not clear, which measures of mon. policy, to which extent and by which way affect economic inequalities in certain stage of econ. cycle. This project systematizes this complex issue and provides comprehensive picture. We investigate individual institutional entities in the sectors of households, non-financial corporations and credit institutions. Distributional effects of monetary policy are quantified not only at aggregated level of EA19, but also at level of individual countries (Slovakia in particular). Project outcomes bring the proposals in the form of recommendations to mitigate these negative aspects of monetary policy on economic equality and thereby to eliminate risk for further economic stagnation or return to crisis.

Project of National Bank of Slovakia - Support programme of targeted doctoral study and research - Income inequalities and distributional effects of monetary policy: role of financial heterogeneity - 2019-2020 - professional supervisor. The role of the project is the support of doctoral student Ing. Boris Fišera in investigation of income inequalities in the context of monetary policy. The output of the project is connected with publishing scientific paper of higher quality in indexed journal to answer the scientific questions related to this research topic.